Why isn’t Michigan in drought since it hasn’t rained in forever?

Drought status on May 30, 2023 shows just two sections of abnormally dry ranking.

Our lawns are brown. We are watering our gardens. The farmer friends are worried about their livelihood. Yet the U.S. Drought Monitor says most of Michigan is not even in the lowest level of drought. How can we not be in drought?

I talked to the person who issued last week's Drought Monitor ranking map. Richard Heim, meteorologist at NOAA's National Center For Environmental Information, produced the U.S. Drought Monitor map this week after taking "dozens of factors into account." Heim says the final producer of the map, which was himself this week, can put three days working 10 hours to figure out what the drought status is all over the U.S.

First, we should figure out what a drought actually is. Drought is an imbalance of water supply to water demand. When the supply of moisture is much less than the demand for water, a drought can develop. There are several levels of drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The first level is called meteorological drought. This is simply when rainfall is lacking. Next is an agricultural drought, then a hydrological drought. Hydrological drought means the water table is going down and affecting water wells. Next comes what Heim called a socioeconomic drought, which is when cities restrict water usage.

Heim points out that ranking an area in some level of drought takes a lot of objective factors and then become a subjective task. He also says aside from the scientific data like past rainfall, there are 600 people around the U.S. that report what they are seeing with their own eyes at localized spots.

After looking at all of the dryness factors, Heim looked at how the current situation compares to history. The drought ranking is specific to a location. If Michigan only had one-half inch of rain in May, it's a dry situation. If Phoenix, Arizona had one-half inch of rain in May, it's a wet situation. Drought conditions in one area aren't drought conditions in another normally drier area.

Heim says the policy of the U.S. Drought Monitor is to only change the drought status at any one spot by one drought level each week. With the widespread lack of recent rain in the eastern U.S. including Michigan, Heim expanded the dryness levels in a big way last week. For Michigan, the driest ranking is abnormally dry in the yellow shaded areas.

Michigan's drought status on May 30, 2023

The main reason why Michigan is not officially in drought right now is the extremely wet conditions from February to April. Heim points out February to April had a Top 10 amount of wetness in Michigan. The moisture below the surface was at least adequate up to now.

But what has caught Richard Heim's eye is the drastic reduction in streamflow across the northeast part of the U.S., including Michigan. This tells Heim we are quickly heading toward drought conditions unless Michigan gets substantial rain soon.

We will likely see the yellow areas of abnormally dry expand in a big way across Michigan this week. We can only see the current yellow areas become the next level, called moderate drought.

Now the momentum is in favor of drying conditions. It will take considerable rainfall to eradicate the dryness.

Michigan wasn't officially in drought last Thursday, but it sounds like many of us will be ranked abnormally dry by this Thursday.

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