Fire danger rated extreme over part of Michigan today, skin

The lack of rain recently combined with desert-like air will make northern Lower Michigan a fire tinderbox today. Let's also look at when the dry situation ends.

A red flag warning is in effect today for about the northern half of Lower Michigan. The red flag warning runs from Ludington to Clare to Standish northward through all of the rest of northern Lower Michigan.

Source: National Weather Service - Gaylord, MI

The red dots on the map above show where the fire danger is at the highest level of extreme. The vegetation is very dry and some of the pine trees have not started taking up moisture and greening up. Those pine trees dry out during the winter and now will catch on fire very easily.

Look at how dry the air is expected to be this afternoon. A typical low humidity afternoon in Michigan would have relative humidities around 25%. This afternoon will have a humidity level common in the southwest U.S. deserts. There will be a large area with relative humidities around 15% this afternoon. All of Michigan will be very dry.

Relative humidity forecast for 4 p.m. this afternoon, May 15, 2023. shows extremely dry air.

The air won't moisten up this week until we get rain late Friday or Saturday. Today looks like the driest afternoon, but the forecast below shows each afternoon becomes dry. The next good chance of rain will be Friday night and Saturday.

Relative humidity forecast from Monday afternoon, May 15 to 8 a.m. Saturday, May 20, 2023

While the red flag warning is officially for today, the National Weather Service issues that type of warning only one day at a time. I’d expect the same red flag warnings through at least Thursday.

Don't do anything that will cause sparks. Don't park a car in tall dry grass. Starting the car could cause sparks and an immediate fire. We will have to be careful with grilling. Of course throwing a cigarette out the car window is littering, but it also could start a serious fire.

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